In November 2018, the trend of natural rubber and synthetic rubber was not consistent. Natural rubber, its market will shock down after a slight rise, while synthetic rubber showed the first rise and then decline.
Market Review
In November, natural rubber rose slightly after the shock fell. In terms of futures, although the dust landing of the U.S. mid-term elections has increased macro uncertainties, the weakness of fundamentals is holding back the gum, which is maintained sideways in the first half of the year. Into the second half of the year, the stock market plummeted, crude oil decline dragged down the chemical commodity market, Shanghai glue showed a decline, the 1901 contract hit a low of 10530 points for the year. However, after the crash, there is a technical need for a rebound, but the rebound is limited. On the in stock side, the production area supply season, terminal demand slowed down drag, the in stock market showed horizontal consolidation, but due to business losses, the industry's low willingness to quote relatively low. In the second half of the month, the futures market will be largely reasonable, but the in stock market is relatively resilient, while the futures market rebounded slightly before the end of the month, but the impact on the in stock market is more limited.
synthetic rubber

Data source: Jin Lianchuang
In November, domestic synthetic rubber was in the first rise and then fall market. In the first ten days of this month, the in stock supply in South China was tight. Some merchants replenished the goods, which triggered a nationwide replenishment boom. Some goods were in short supply. The market negotiation price kept rising. Most goods were negotiated at 12500 yuan/ton. With the weakening of replenishment demand and weak follow-up of terminal demand, the market negotiated price loosened and fell back. In addition, the prices of butadiene and styrene are at a low level, and the price of natural rubber is low, which makes the synthetic rubber merchants have the intention to avoid shipping. While the negotiation price is upside down, the supplier lowered the price of synthetic rubber. Butadiene rubber and butadiene rubber reached the lowest price of the year so far in the second half of the month. At the end of the month, the prices of butadiene rubber and styrene butadiene rubber are around 11500 yuan/ton.
trend analysis
(1) Butadiene:
In terms of butadiene, although the problems of secco and Fushun devices make them have room for speculation, considering that the demand for synthetic rubber is weak due to the decline in tire operating rate, which will drag down the downstream demand for butadiene, it is heard that some synthetic rubber manufacturers have weak purchase intention for butadiene in December, and the market price of butadiene may fluctuate and decline after the middle of the year.
(2) Supply:
In December, synthetic rubber production was little changed. In terms of styrene-butadiene rubber, the styrene-butadiene rubber units mainly in production enterprises are basically operating normally, and their discharge output has not changed much compared with November. In terms of cis-polybutadiene rubber, Maoming Petrochemical's cis-polybutadiene rubber plant will resume operation in early December after stopping in late November, while other enterprises are basically stable. Cis-polybutadiene rubber production in December has little change compared with November. Overall, the supply of synthetic rubber in December was basically the same as that in November.
(3) Demand:
Data show that in October 2018, car production and sales completed 2.334 million and 2.38 million vehicles, respectively, production and sales fell 0.9 percent and 0.6 percent, respectively, down 10.1 percent and 11.7 percent year-on-year, production and sales growth continued to fall. In November, the operating rate of tire enterprises declined, while in December, the end of orders to the United States and the increase in inventory will contain the production of enterprises. At the same time, the return of funds and the uncertainty of production caused by haze weather are also increasing. In addition, winter itself is also the off-season, the production of tire enterprises will be weaker than that in November, and the demand for raw materials will also be restrained.
(4) Forecast:
Natural rubber: There is a certain rebound opportunity in the natural rubber market in December, but there is a risk of rising and falling. Sky gum fundamentals are under heavy pressure, but there is some speculation support in the short-term macro environment. The Federal Reserve released dovish signals, Sino-US trade frictions have eased, and rubber prices have been in the historical low price range, so into December, the gum market rebounded slightly. But if the market can not appear more positive boost, the probability of high rubber prices down.
Synthetic rubber: butadiene showed signs of stabilization, and the Sino-US trade war also eased at the end of November, supporting the market, and the synthetic rubber market has room for exploration. However, after all, it has entered December, and the early overdraft of funds and terminals is affecting the market, and the resistance to the rise will be greater. In the second half of the year, with the expansion of the stocking node, synthetic rubber will have high space. During the month, several key points should be paid attention to: 11500 point and 12000 point, where variables are easy to exist.