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Behind the abnormal fluctuations in the price difference between plastics and PP, the difference between supply and demand is gradually showing.

Behind the abnormal fluctuations in the price difference between plastics and PP, the difference between supply and demand is gradually showing.

2024-07-10

Since the beginning of the year, commodities have generally risen, and the prices of some commodities with strong macro attributes and contracted supply have hit record highs. The two major cost sources of plastics and PP, Brent crude oil has increased by more than 40% during the year, and the price of thermal coal once broke through the thousand yuan mark. However, the cumulative increase in the two disk, affected by the expansion cycle has not yet ended, supply pressure is still large, while the macro-inflationary effect has not been effectively transmitted to the downstream consumer side, so that plastics, PP high short-lived. In view of the high oil prices, coal prices difficult to fall, the cost of the bottom and upward drive is insufficient, betting on unilateral effect may not be the best. In the previous period of observation, we discussed the reasons for the reversal of PP and plastic spreads, while in the past January the two spreads have fluctuated significantly, this period we want to explore the reasons behind the abnormal fluctuations, as well as the future changes in the spread between the two thinking. First of all, let's review the reason why plastic performance is obviously weaker than PP since April this year, which is most directly reflected in the changes in inventory of the two. At that time, PE port inventory continued to rise to a record high in mid-April, superimposed on the impact of the release of high demand for PE prices. In a single month, the overall PE inventory of coal chemical enterprises was nearly 40%, but PP coal chemical inventory was actually lost. Although PP was also affected by demand at high prices, what could not be ignored was the outbreak of incremental export demand of PP production enterprises and the surge in overseas orders during the epidemic. One data is quite amazing. Domestic PP exports increased about 4 times from March to May compared with the same period last year! The different supply and demand performance made PP's premium on plastics reach about 700 yuan in mid-May.

PVC, PP rose and fell, why? Ministry of Commerce: the United States imports of PA66 slices to continue to impose anti-dumping duties for 5 years

PVC, PP rose and fell, why? Ministry of Commerce: the United States imports of PA66 slices to continue to impose anti-dumping duties for 5 years

2021-10-15

As the end of the year approaches, polyethylene rises powerless.

As the end of the year approaches, polyethylene rises powerless.

2020-01-16

At the beginning of 2020, the "thunder" between the United States and Iran exploded. The three major shock waves of the "decisive battle" between the United States and Iran, the resurgence of the Middle East, and the "earthquake" in the crude oil market have set off a frenzy in the financial market. As a small branch, polyethylene market is still subject to some impact, linear futures rebounded in early January, but the momentum is obviously insufficient, the in stock market has been depressed for a long time, crude oil rise to encourage some businesses and downstream corresponding replenishment, some resources less product prices. However, as the end of the year is approaching, downstream factories will gradually enter the end of procurement. In the later period, work will be shut down one after another. Demand will shrink. The rise in the market is always weak and limited. Considering the inevitable increase in inventory after the year, prices will still have downward pressure. It is expected that the pre-holiday shock consolidation will be the main factor. First of all, the situation in the Middle East is unpredictable in the crude oil market, if the war is tight, will push up oil prices, otherwise oil prices will fall. However, from the trend in recent years, due to the continuous expansion of coal chemical industry, the voice of oil enterprises is reduced, the trend of crude oil and polyethylene is stripped, and the correlation is gradually decreasing. If crude oil rises sharply, the profits of oil companies will shrink further, which may affect some oil-based polyethylene production. Second, near the end of the year, the market is not willing to trade, demand is flat. Due to the downward trend of the 2019 market throughout the year, the market mentality deviation, before the festival more stock cautious, appropriate replenishment of inventory after turning to the wait-and-see. Social stocks began to accumulate from mid-to-late January. In the process of digesting resources at the annual meeting, it is generally believed that prices are difficult to rise. Finally, Zhejiang Petrochemical will be put into production at the end of 2019 and the beginning of 2020. On January 13, it was reported that HDPE has been T60-800 pellets off the production line, full density has been put into production, and 7042 powder has been produced. The device is designed to produce 300000 tons/year of HDPE and 450000 tons/year of full density. It is located in Zhoushan, Zhejiang Province, and is an integrated cracking device. Dalian Hengli ethylene cracking plant plans to put into operation around the Spring Festival. New devices are put into operation, domestic supply increases, and general competitive pressure increases.

2018.12.19-National New Deal Released, Greatly Favoring Synthetic Rubber Industry

2018.12.19-National New Deal Released, Greatly Favoring Synthetic Rubber Industry

2018-12-19

For a long time, the inconsistent classification of synthetic rubber in customs declaration and the inconsistent implementation of tax rates have had a greater impact on its exports. On December 6, the General Administration of Customs issued a decision on the classification of some commodities in 2018. The announcement solved this problem to a certain extent. Industry insiders said that the classification of synthetic rubber has plagued the industry for many years. As the state's export tax rebate rate for general trade synthetic rubber "plates, sheets and belts" was adjusted to zero in July 2011, the judgment on the export classification of synthetic rubber directly affected the export tax rebate rate of products, resulting in a significant decline in the export volume of synthetic rubber, with the export volume of synthetic rubber falling from a peak of 290000 tons in 2011 to about 200000 tons. After the country issued the classification decision of synthetic rubber in December 2007, the actual implementation resulted in not classifying synthetic rubber products according to the actual form, and expanded the classification scope of synthetic rubber "plate, sheet and belt", and classified most of the "block" primary shape rubber normally produced as "plate, sheet and belt", as a result, the number of synthetic rubber import and export commodities classified as "plates, sheets and belts" has increased year by year. The classification revision released this time has added the description of the classification of synthetic rubber according to the primary shape, which will promote the accurate classification and unification of the import and export commodities of synthetic rubber and have a positive impact on increasing the export of synthetic rubber. At present, the export tax rebate rate of synthetic rubber primary shape products has been increased to 10% and 13%, and it is expected that the number of synthetic rubber exports with primary shape will increase year by year, this may promote the production of China's synthetic rubber in the world to the international market.

New production capacity continues to release PP supply pressure in 2019

New production capacity continues to release PP supply pressure in 2019

2018-12-17

On December 11, 2018, Dalian Hengli Petrochemical issued a message that it planned to start the operation on December 15 and the normal decompression and other units were planned to start the operation. As soon as this news came out, it aroused the attention of the industry to the future production of the device. It is understood that the new PP production capacity in 2018 is 1.05 million tons. As shown in the table above, CNOOC Shell, Yan'an Energy Chemical, and Jiutai Energy are also planned to put into production. But put into production in 2019 On December 11, 2018, Dalian Hengli Petrochemical issued a message that it planned to start the operation on December 15 and the normal decompression and other units were planned to start the operation. As soon as this news came out, it aroused the attention of the industry to the future production of the device.

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