The daily glue has a change rise.
The US-China G20 talks have been narrowly volatile after rubber rushes back. Compared with the volatility of thread coke, the rubber volatility is small. It shows that the market is less divided. That is, the short-term view of rubber downward space is small. Large upward space. The upward momentum is not strong.
Fundamental considerations, 90-day delay in G20 talks. This is beneficial for tire factories to start spring stocking production. Tire factories may step up production and export to the United States. This has led to a small wave of in stock stocking and even a rising market. However, due to more in stock, the in stock amplitude is small.
In mid-December may be rubber thread coke and other varieties of 1901 contracts have to do more such as delivery intention. The market here or there is a week of shock waiting. The market is not overnight.
November 23 rubber warehouse single reduced 200000. Due to the forced cancellation of warehouse receipts after the expiration of the RU1811 contract. According to the position calculation, the position order that must be written off is 336000 tons.
Looking at the market, the market is expected to start a rebound in December (as the pressure to receive goods disappears).
Short-term price is not pessimistic.
Thailand's production cut information is not priced. 11000 price industry enthusiasm is not high, further production reduction or occurrence. Considering that both industry information and ANRPC reports point to the direction of production reduction. Plus receiving pressure disappears. Domestic cut, domestic demand and high operating rate of exports, can support the formation of rubber rebound. At present, traders have tried to do more in stock.
How is the industry? The operating rate is relatively high, and the boom is maintained. too much.
As of December 7, 2018, the Shanghai Stock Exchange had 385624(10135) tons of rubber and 311550(23430) tons of warehouse receipts.
Midstream tires have a higher business climate, but it has decreased. As of December 7, 2018, the operating rate of all steel tires for tire enterprises in Shandong was 73.08, down 1.71 percentage points from the previous month and up 7.38 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating rate of semi-steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 67.11, down 1.45 percentage points from the previous month and 0.73 percentage points from the same period last year.
On December 1, Fang Xinghai said that he was actively promoting the listing of No. 20 rubber futures. This is negative for rubber futures. Pay attention to this risk.
In stock
Last trading day, from 16:00 p.m. to 18:00 p.m., the in stock market quoted 9950 yuan (50) for compound rubber. RU1901 is a bit high.
natural rubber net operation recommendations:
Short-term operation, rubber to maintain short more ideas. (Refer to RU1905 Steady 11250 for conservators).
(Low prices may have repeated shocks, not aggressive)
We currently maintain the rebound thinking. Reevaluate after the rebound (high probability or rebound short selling).